Michael Corleone plays a double game: Someone issued a hit against him in his own house.  There are two suspects: Hyman Roth, an underworld mogul with whom Michael is doing some big deals; or Frank Pentangeli, a boss in the Corleone family who has somewhat branched off on his own–and actually lives in the compound that the Corleones previously owned.  Michael doesn’t know who ordered the hit–at least we don’t think he knows. 

Pentangeli Ordered the Hit?  

Pentangeli falls under suspicion given his somewhat belligerent accosting of Michael at the party celebrating Michael’s son’s communion in Nevada.  First, he’s frustrated that he has to wait to see Michael.  He asks Fredo facetiously, 

“What do I have to do, get a letter of introduction?”  

Then, when he does see Michael, he yells drunkenly and indignantly about the situation in NY.  Discussing a rival crime syndicate, the Rosato brothers, he explains: 

“Hey Mike, they spit right in my face. All because they’re backed up by that Jew in Miami.” 

The “Jew in Miami” refers to Roth.  Based on his belligerence, one might infer that the hit was from Pentangeli, although he technically does tell Michael’s crew that they won’t have any problems from him after he rants for a few minutes.  As we shall see later, they could have taken Pentangeli’s promise of continuing cooperation at face value.  

When Michael visits Pentangeli in his home, Michael tells him he thinks that Hyman Roth ordered the hit, after stating rather emphatically that this happened “IN MY HOME” (powerful acting by Al Pacino),as though to suss out Pentangeli’s reaction.    

When Pentangeli falls victim to a hit (or attempted hit) upon meeting the Rosato brothers, we assume it was Michael because Michael apparently believes that it was Pentangeli that ordered the hit on him.  Only later does Michael state forthrightly to Hyman Roth, “I didn’t order him to be killed.”  From this we can only infer that Hyman Roth ordered the hit, and by his meandering anecdote about Moe Green creating Las Vegas, and Moe Green’s assassination, only then is it clear that the real foes are lined up: Michael Corleone vs. Hyman Roth.  

Roth Ordered the Hit? 

When Michael visits with Hyman Roth, Roth tells him:

“I heard you had some trouble.  Stupid, people behaving like that with guns.”  

The congenital liar fails to mention that he ordered the hit himself.  But for the time, it’s a plausible denial.  Michael tells Roth that Pentangeli ordered the hit because he was unhappy with the situation in New York and the Rosato brothers.  Michael tells Roth that Pentangeli asked him if he could take out the Rosatto brothers: 

“When I refused, he tried to have me killed…He was stupid, I was lucky.  I’ll visit him soon” 

Does Michael really believe what he’s telling Roth?  Maybe, or maybe it’s only one possibility which he is cautiously exploring, this time sussing out how Roth reacts.    

Who Betrayed Michael from the Inside? 

Pentangeli was prescient in expressing his shock that Michael would side with Roth, a Jew, against another Italian.  Ultimately, no, no he wouldn’t.  

Meanwhile, Michael knows that someone in the family betrayed him. It is never clear exactly what this betrayal entailed, but perhaps in order to breach the security of Michael’s compound, a betrayal was necessary.  Through his own stupidity, Fredo reveals it was him:  By pretending that he has never met Johnny Ola, Roth’s Italian henchman, and then recounting a story in which he mentions that they frequented a club together to the group in Havana, Fredo has revealed his hand.  Anyway, he’s a bad liar. 

This is the moment Michael knows positively that it was Roth that ordered the hit.  Otherwise, why would Fredo have a reason to lie, claiming he had never met Johnny Ola?  The only reason to lie about that association is because of a conspiracy, and the conspiracy was to assassinate Michael, even if Fredo, as he claims, did not realize the point was to kill him.  

Having confirmed the culprit, Michael moves quickly to kill Ola and try to kill Roth.  Both Roth and Michael played a double game, both skilled at deception.  Roth lies to hide his perfidy, Michael deceives in order to suss out who betrayed him. 

It’s clear from their talk by the lake that Fredo’s motivation is his sense of being jilted, an unspoken sibling rivalry, in which he was passed over as the head of the family, especially given that he is older than Michael.  

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